The Namibian Statistics Agency has maintained that mining statistics as contained in the 2016 Preliminary National Accounts are accurate, rubbishing recent claims by the Chamber of Mines of Namibia that they are underestimated.
Statistician General Alex Shimuafeni insisted in an interview with the Windhoek Observer this week that their figures were accurate, refuting accusations by the mining chamber that the figures in the 2016 Preliminary National Accounts were a gross misrepresentation of the true contribution the industry made to the gross domestic product (GDP) last year.
The accusation by the mining chamber at the recently held mining expo and conference was the second time that NSA figures had come under scrutiny.
In September last year, economists Rowland Brown and Klaus Schade questioned the NSA’s use of deflators. The two were of the view that the NSA had used the wrong deflator and as a result released inaccurate statistics.
Deflation is the process of eliminating the price effect in order to calculate the growth in national accounts.
The NSA insisted at that time that the national accounts are compiled in line with international standards and follow best international practises.
It said Namibia’s national accounts have been peer reviewed and the methodology quality checked and assured by national accounts experts from the IMF vested with the mandate of ensuring compliance to international standards. The last peer review was done in August 2016.
This week, the Windhoek Observer’s Chamwe Kaira (CK) asked Shimuafeni (AS) about the accusations by the chamber and how the NSA has followed up on the issue.
CK: This is the second time in a year that NSA statistics have been disputed by stakeholders; do you still maintain that your figures are credible?
AS: Yes, NSA definitely disputes these claims and I maintain that our figures are credible.
CK: Do you agree with the Chamber of Mines, that mining’s contribution to GDP in 2016 was understated?
AS: The contribution of the mining sector to GDP in the national accounts is not understated. The production figures quoted by the Chamber of Mines are exactly the same as what is (contained) in the national accounts.
The difference arose because the Chamber of Mines compared production figures at current values with NSA value added at constant prices.
The two are different and must not be compared. Growth rates of the mining sector in GDP are calculated by using value added at constant prices that are weighted in the base year using 2010 prices.
This methodology is what the Chamber of Mines did not take into account and this was clarified to them in a meeting that was held on Monday, 8 May 2017 between the NSA and the Chamber of Mines.
After this clarification in the meeting, the Chamber of Mines agreed to explain this to their stakeholders so as to avoid future misinterpretations.
CK: Some have said the difference between preliminary figures and final figures, show huge disparities, what do you have to say on this?
AS: Revisions of national accounts is something we cannot avoid, as this is part of international best practices.
The preliminary national accounts are based on unaudited figures which are received through the annual economic surveys and administrative data. It is therefore, expected that as updated information becomes available from sources, these figures are incorporated in the revised annual national accounts.
Although revisions are done, they are usually small to such an extent that they will not portray a different economic performance.
It is important to note that the accuracy of national accounts estimates and their comparability across countries depend on timely revisions to data on GDP and its components
CK: Is the NSA understaffed and underfunded?
AS: We are staffed to do certain projects, and with more staff we would be able to do more data collection and dissemination, yes.
CK: Do you have all the necessary skills needed or can the skills levels still be improved?
AS: The staff currently compiling the national accounts are highly skilled and they continuously receive training through the IMF.
The compilation of the national accounts is a science and being such, it is constantly evolving and skills need to be constantly improved as international methodologies continuously change.
CK: Anything else you may wish to add?
AS: I would like to advise anyone disputing our figures that they should please first come to NSA to dispute here before they mislead the nation, because the NSA is mandated with producing official statistics and it is the only institution mandated to do so by the Statistics Act.
Should you still feel that you are not convinced by us, you are welcome to tell the nation, but give us a chance to give our views and comments.